The Path Forward for Trans Rights After the Midterms

Our first task, in the wake of Tuesday’s election results, is to dispel any delusions about what our political system is capable of providing to marginalized people under capitalism. Even in the most trans-friendly states, with well-funded, well-intended, and influential queer lobbying arms, even under the Biden administration, before establishment Democrats started to openly turn on us, trans people largely live on the margins of society. We struggle with poverty, abuse, violence, hatred, and discrimination in all facets of life, and civil rights protections are rarely enforced to actually protect us.

The targeted discrimination we face only compounds the widespread suffering that all working class people grapple with in the decaying empire that we live in. An empire which increasingly refuses to provide its subjects with even the bare minimum standards of food, healthcare, or housing that other liberal democracies have conceded to workers in Europe and elsewhere, to stave off radical movements with dividends from imperial conquest and extraction from workers across the Global South.

As I will detail in an upcoming piece, the struggles we face against both capitalist political factions is not an accident nor a temporary blip in history. Rather than simply a series of bad policy decisions made by individually bigoted people, the oppression of women, trans people, and racial minorities is an inevitable, structural component of capitalism. That brutal system is near-unanimously supported by both parties in power across the country, and even a liberal with the purest of intentions is still supporting a system that will lead to our downfall.

While we need to ultimately abolish capitalism to achieve true liberation, we cannot build socialism without first surviving to the day we can do so. I believe under the current system, we will unquestionably survive this genocide, we can absolutely win back our healthcare, we will one day return to the homes in "red" states that many of us fled from, without fear. I believe that in our lifetimes we can create a world where we not only can live without the fear of genocidal politicians breathing down our necks, we can live free of the wretched system of capitalism entirely.

Elections, unlike what liberals often argue, are rarely truly world-shifting historical events, save for perhaps FDR and Lincoln, and even then only to protect capitalism from the power of militant movements on the ground. Although Democrats and Republicans have some differences on domestic policies, both parties near-unanimously support capitalism and have only minor disputes on foreign affairs and immigration, with Democrats long-supporting ICE and violence against Iran and Venezuela, just more quietly. The political parties represent different factions of the same elites, working together to collectively manage the recurring crises of capitalism and stall its inevitable demise.

Regardless of the intentions of individual politicians running for office, there has never been a ballot box in U.S. history where your vote would change the basis of our economic system, end imperialism, or stop fascism, because these are structural components of the political system that go far deeper than any election.

But still, elections have obvious significance and short-term consequences on society, especially for marginalized people targeted as the victims of fascist politicians for genocide. From the perspective of trans people, the results of elections should not result in either blind hope nor absolute despair, as both extremes remove the agency of our own actions and how our organizing impacts the political system and the world around us.

Politics is not about picking a favorite brand of cereal at the grocery store and then sticking with it. Politics, for trans people, is a continuous war for survival, and elections reveal the terrain of our fight for the next two years.

In 2024, the terrain was revealed as extremely difficult and treacherous for all of us. Donald Trump and the GOP won control of much of the country after spending tens of millions on anti-trans ads, with promises to ban our healthcare and rights from a federal level through Congress and the executive.

Rather than defending us, Kamala Harris and the wider Democratic Party moved away from advocating for trans rights throughout the election and lost due to its refusal to end its genocide in Israel and campaign on progressive policies to support the working class. Afterwards, they turned to scapegoating trans people, immigrants, and other marginalized communities for their loss, rather than admitting that what the data really showed was that their support for Israel’s genocide was far more impactful.

As I wrote on Trump's inauguration day, the task for trans people was laid out before us cleanly: protect yourself, your loved ones, your community, and focus all political energy on defeating anti-trans legislation in Congress first, and executive orders and local issues second.

Over the last two years, we have suffered terrible losses as numerous hospitals and universities in "blue" states cowered to Trump's pressure campaign against trans healthcare for minors, despite most of his attacks being ruled unconstitutional by all those who fought it.

But we also avoided the worst possible outcomes by far, not through any political party or unaccountable nonprofit, but through the grassroots power of countless everyday trans people yelling and screaming for their survival with all the breath we had. Through these collective efforts, we defeated the Republicans’ attempt to bar federal funding for all trans healthcare by pushing Senate Democrats to shut up and do their fucking jobs.

And now, though many trans people have been kicked off due various partial restrictions on trans healthcare in various states, situations, and federal insurance plans, we avoided the horrors that could have fallen upon our community had they enacted a complete national funding ban.

Outside of that fight, trans communities across the country have shown politicians of both parties their strength by showing out in force for protests against transphobic hospitals, bathroom bans, and legislatures. Many of us played important roles on the ground in the anti-fascist battles against ICE and Israel's genocide in Gaza, as we intuitively understand that our fates our tied with all victims of the escalating fascist regime across the globe.

These efforts have not gone unnoticed, and many cis progressive allies such as those in the DSA have fervently defended us by repeating our criticisms of anti-trans Democrats who they may have otherwise supported. There is no doubt we can and should mobilize such support in the fights to come.

Unfortunately, the latter half of this year saw Democrats fulfilling their role in the capitalist system by working overtime to absorb and misdirect the widespread grassroots rage against Trump's ICE concentration camps, genocidal wars in Israel and Iran, and human rights atrocities against trans people and other groups.

Instead of organizing general strikes, stopping ICE kidnappings, and pressuring Chuck Schumer, liberal energy was rapidly diverted to full-throatedly supporting Democrats running for office who had varying levels of agreement with Trump on trans rights, Palestine, ICE, or other horrors. Instead of focusing energy on fascist Nazis who vote for Republicans in droves or the Democrats who enable them, many liberals started yelling at trans people who criticized Democrats throwing us under the bus and warned, accurately, that they would not stop there.

We faced a barrage of abusive rhetoric despite the fact that, by all measures in both 2024 and 2026, trans and queer people across the country are as solid Democratic a voting bloc as it comes, with around 86% of trans people who voted backing Democrats.¹

So here we are today. Democrats won the midterms not just resoundingly, but crushingly across the country. The margins are so massive that any arguments that supporting trans people hurt the Democratic party have essentially been conceded by default. Even Florida Gov. Ron Desantis blamed his party's obsession with trans people for their tremendous losses and admits they were meant to “scare Republicans to vote”—a reversal from the 2024 bipartisan delusion that Trump won because of swing voters against Democrats’ support for trans rights.

Nor have we seen the same kinds of immediate reprisals and blaming of trans people across the media (at least as of now) that we saw after Democrats lost in 2024. And there are encouraging signs pointing towards elites conceding to us that Republican anti-trans attack ads didn't hurt Democrats as they thought they would, in this election or the last. The broader political momentum within the Democratic party is leaning in favor of the interests of young, working class progressives over decrepit, centrist billionaires.

Still, trans people, unlike most liberals and even some leftists across the country, are hardly celebrating the outcomes of the election, and with good reason.

Several ballot measures in states that voted for Democrats by large margins — Colorado, Washington and Arizona — also showed that voters are willing to vote for astroturfed ballot measures that mandate genital inspections for schoolchildren in order to root out trans kids and even ban some trans healthcare.

These losses are no doubt bleak, and understandably have made many trans people in those states feel afraid that even people in liberal areas may be willing to support draconian measures that harm us. The embrace of open transphobic rhetoric by some Democrats, including calling trans girls “biological males" in campaign ads and elsewhere, hasn't won them any Republican voters, but it has worked to make many liberal voters more transphobic than ever before.

We should ground ourselves, however, with the reality that these were billionaire-backed campaigns with little-to-no opposition from Democrats that duped voters who lack education on trans issues with confusing ballot language. History has also shown that these kinds of ballot measures (and their popular support) rarely last the test of time in liberal-leaning states (and are often beatable even in conservative ones), such as California’s vote to ban gay marriage in 2008 being eventually overturned in the face of legal challenges and uncompromising organizing for change.

Even among ballot measures, due to the efforts of trans activists to actually advocate for trans people, rather than fearmonger about how the measures impact cis people, Missouri voted against a trans healthcare ban for minors tied to an amendment that would repeal an abortion ban. This big win shows that even in "red" states, voters are not so personally invested in hurting us that they will vote against their own basic rights, and that our efforts will bear fruit no matter where we live.

Vermont voters backed a measure enshrining civil rights protections for trans people into the state constitution with a massive 60% margin, showing that with the right ballot measure wording, regular people do support our rights to exist. The number of people who lack education on our issues is undoubtedly higher than it should be, but the count of those who are genuinely rabidly obsessed transphobes is far smaller than what the Epstein class billionaires who are funding the bigotry want you to think.

There were other elections that did not go as many trans people hoped as well. Despite his last-minute decision to support genocidal policies against trans people, Josh Turek (among dozens of other anti-trans Democrats) was able to win a spot in the Senate for six years, though he trailed fellow Democrat Rob Sands, who won the governorship, on the same ballot by six points.

These wins can hardly be attributed to anything other than riding the coattails of voter anger against Republicans, as evidenced by another Democrat on the ballot in Iowa winning his House election even after suspending his campaign due to illness. We probably won't see anyone arguing that Democrats should suspend their campaigns in order to win elections.

Importantly, politicians who supported trans rights won against opponents who spent millions on transphobic attacks ads in places as diverse as Minnesota, Montana, and Georgia. Most strikingly of all, Allison Montgomery, a transfem organizer from Alabama, crushed her Republican opponent by focusing on local working class issues such as data centers, corruption, and child abusers in state politics. And she crushed him in a district that normally votes for Republicans by 16 points, in what many see as the most transphobic region of the country. Some liberals such as a writer for Fast Company are already acknowledging that they were wrong to blame us in either 2024 or 2026.

On the whole, the elections have revealed that the new terrain ahead for us is still difficult with new challenges, but a tremendous improvement over where we were two years ago. Since Trump's win, we have been forced to play a game of defense, fending off attacks from Republicans and scalding cowardice (or even active collaboration) from Democrats. But now, we are finally back on terrain that allows us to start pushing forward and making offensive maneuvers to regain our basic rights across huge portions of the country.

The tactics and strategies we adopt will vary based on where you live and where your personal priorities lie between state, local, and national politics. We must, on all fronts, hold the line at defending trans kids in sports and keeping the fire at the feet of Democrats at every level of government, across the country, to do what people voted for them to do and fight back against fascism. There must be no compromise on trans rights. We will not cede Czechoslovakia to Hitler.

The best opportunities for trans people are in a handful of states that normally back Republicans, such as Texas and Missouri. After decades of one-party fascist rule by some of the most extreme Republicans in the country, a sweeping victory for tepid liberalism has felt like a breath of fresh air to many trans and cis people in Texas who care about basic human dignities and oppose the ever-escalating racism of the GOP against Indians and other immigrants.

This victory predictably arrives with steep caveats, as the incoming governor, daughter of the longtime head of the Texas Democratic Party, told Politico before the election that despite her prior votes against fascist laws in the state, she would not prioritize repealing bans against abortion or trans healthcare, which she characterized as mere “culture wars.” Additionally, Democrats will need another election cycle to take the Texas Senate before they can directly repeal legislation.

The voters who supported her and other Democrats into office, however, will be severely disappointed if their first breath of fresh air after decades of rule by a far-right government is replaced by a center-right government that refuses to meaningfully capitalize on their win with the power they do have. While Democrats may be tepid, the collective anger of the country represented by the election results is very real and can be channeled to force out concessions.

Democrats in Texas will have the authority to replace transphobic members of medical and university boards, refuse to enforce fascist bathroom and healthcare laws, resume issuing updated birth certificates to trans people, and support lawsuits to the Texas Supreme Court that repeal anti-trans healthcare laws permanently, as that court now has a majority of justices who may be willing to rule in our favor in at least some cases.

All of this will only happen if trans people organize en masse to make it happen, relentlessly at every step of the way. Importantly, we do have a real chance at repealing some of the worst laws against us, which is undeniably a huge reason to find grounded hope that you can channel into action. More than ever, trans people should capitalize on these opportunities for change to organize with massive force in states like Texas, Missouri, Arizona, and North Carolina where repeals on anti-trans healthcare laws are conceivably achievable in the near-term.

Once one bill is repealed or overruled, the history of political momentum show us that bills will start falling one by one, state by state, just like the collapse of anti-gay marriage laws after 2009, and the spread of the same trans healthcare bans since 2021. We are living in a world where several states with collectively tens of millions of people may be on the brink of repealing some of the worst anti-trans laws in the country. This outcome will be determined by whether every single person reading this does everything they can to make it happen, no matter what the odds may seem.

For those living in states that passed transphobic ballot measures, trans people must organize strongly to protest and force their governments to completely repeal and repudiate these measures through all branches of government. If they refuse, make it a point of constant conflict and pressure. Governors can be pushed to refuse to enforce unconstitutional laws, legislatures can pass laws that repeal them or make them toothless, and courts can rule them unconstitutional violations of the 4th, 5th, and 14th amendments, as well as state constitutions.

Sports bans are just as harmful to us as any other anti-trans law because they are meant to deny the fact that trans women are women, not “biological males," and deny the peer-reviewed science showing how our medical transition negates any “biological advantage." These ideas help fascists pave the path for even more draconian bans, as we have witnessed time and time again.

We should reject the liberal tendency to fight against these measures by focusing on how they harm cis people, and refocus to defending trans kids, full stop. We must loudly and proudly defend ourselves and our rights to participate in society as equal members. Even while working towards repeal, on the ground efforts can make anti-trans laws void on the ground, like when sports organizations refuse to comply with unconstitutional bans. None of these outcomes can happen on their own; you must take things into your own hands and organize.

At the national level, we can appreciate the fact that the chances of a trans healthcare funding ban for all ages passing Congress have essentially collapsed in the near-term. Even with Josh Turek joining the ranks of Republicans who openly support such cruelty, it is highly unlikely that there will be 50 votes in the Senate to support such a measure, let alone 60 to pass the filibuster. We must remain wary and vigilant of the risk national Democrats following the trans genocidal path taken by the British Labour Party following their own wave election, but crucial differences in the US, such as the powers of state governments, provide us a buffer of protection.

On the other hand, congressional relief from Trump’s laws is highly unlikely without strong and continued pushback from trans people. Some Democrats won on platforms to codify trans rights and challenge the Trump administration’s fascist laws against us, but the “centrists” (more accurately, fascist enablers) in the party have signaled they will push against any reprieve from Trump’s purges and gleefully turn a blind eye to MAGA’s obsession with killing us.

And frighteningly, those same MAGA enablers may be willing to make "deals" with Trump that could include anti-trans provisions on sports or trans healthcare for minors. Immediately after conceding the elections, Trump signaled to reporters that while he was willing to work with Democrats on many issues, he would not compromise on his position against trans healthcare for minors. We will not compromise our position either.

You can fight back against any such "deals" before they even happen by simply calling your senator or representative once seated and demand they support all measures and inquiries in favor of trans rights and reject Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer for leader in their respective chamber. Both are highly unpopular right-wing, Zionist politicians who must not be the ones who control the party’s legislative agenda in the years to come.

Further demand that they commit to never voting for any bill with anti-trans provisions and repeat the mistakes of the atrocious anti-trans 2024 NDAA bill passed by a blue Senate and signed by Biden. We should especially pile the pressure on every anti-trans Democrat on their social media accounts and elsewhere. They must know we are watching every motion, vote, word they make on the floor of Congress or otherwise, and that we will respond to any attacks in kind.

Outside of those simpler tasks, we must also flood town halls, congressional offices, and the streets to demand Democrats do the bare minimum to fight back against fascism. We should not have any delusions that participating in the mechanisms of liberal democracy will permanently prevent fascism or liberate us, but the last few years have shown us that we can win concessions from the ruling class that — while short of the permanent, full liberation — enable us to survive, regroup, and expand our fight for the next day.

Across all methods of organizing, across all levels of government, we must unite in solidarity not just with our own communities, but also further by combining our efforts with Palestinians, immigrants, and the broader working class against capitalism.

This also means refusing to join the ranks of liberal, pro-capitalist queer organizations that feign support for us, or to delude ourselves into thinking that we can reform a political party that exists to maintain capitalism from the inside.

It is absolutely essential that we recognize that the true enemy of trans people is not any individual politician or single political party, but the entirety of the capitalist ruling class which props up the economic structure of our society which oppresses us.

Both liberal and conservative factions of the ruling class cynically and ruthlessly weaponize the two political parties to manipulate the masses away from fundamental change to the economic structure of our society which oppresses us by cyclically attempting to appease working people with either minor concessions in social programs and civil rights, or fascist persecution of minorities.

It is not an exaggeration to say the vast majority of everyday trans people have far more in common with a Palestinian surviving genocide, an immigrant forced to live in a concentration camp, or a mine worker in the Congo than any of gay or trans quislings who have taken refuge with our enemies in the capitalist ruling class for personal gain in Congress, billionaire-funded transphobic think tanks like CAP, Searchlight, or elsewhere.

When a liberal offers you a "seat at the table," remember that they are offering you a baby seat with a mandatory binky to pacify you and shut you up without giving you what you want. When they lecture you about how we need a "big tent" to win elections, remind them that entering a tent holding a raging maniac promising to kill you is not a viable political strategy. Remind them that your goal is to smash their cowardly tables and stomp on their fascist tents.

Since we have already determined our values and agreed upon our goals as a community — Trans Rights or Else — the only remaining task is to collectively strategize how to take our rights back from them by whatever means necessary. Sometimes this means adopting the tactics of liberals and playing nice by making temporary, arms-length deals with them for political wins, while remaining steadfast in our opposition to their institutions which co-opt and subsume us if we stick around too long.

Other times it means lying through our teeth and using other guerrilla tactics against our enemies in the ruling class with the intention to outflank them, no matter who they are. We must be willing to deceive and manipulate liberal politicians, pollsters, and journalists the same way they treat us. Pocket their concessions, then run roughshod over them.

We must relentlessly organize primarily through existing and new political organizations of all kinds, shapes, and sizes, so long as they have a track record of aligning with our values while thoroughly rejecting capitalism as the basis of their movement, without devolving into abuse, bigotry, or cult-like behavior. Start locally, and go up from there. These organizations should build alternative structures of power that help care for our communities when the capitalist state inevitably fails, while building up the basis for radical change.

We also must ramp up our pressure campaigns against companies like The New York Times for their atrocities against us, in collaboration with Palestinians. Beyond just boycotting puzzles and recipes, we should organize protests and campaigns targeting specific pension funds that hold significant stakes in the genocidal newspaper and demand they #DivestTheTimes.

By combining a "ruthless criticism of all that exists" with a determined and flexible set of tactics that never sells out on our values, we can achieve our goals without a single compromise. It will not be easy, simple, or straightforward, but I can see a world where in 10 years, trans healthcare bans have been repealed in many parts of the country, others are de facto dead, and we are able to use that window of hard-fought freedom to regroup and plan our next steps.

We can then join the broader class struggle alongside the entire international working class towards the collective liberation of the masses by escalating the fight for the permanent end of capitalism, as the ruling class fails to prevent the crises and contradictions of our rotting system from devastating the everyday lives of everyone. From there, who knows what we can accomplish.

Some might say it’s far-fetched, but I genuinely believe that this is a very possible outcome based not on blind hope, but concrete evidence of the strength of the political movement for trans liberation and the perseverance we have shown to make it this far. You have already planted the seeds for our victory. It's now time to make sure they blossom into a new world.

—Edited by David Forbes